Failures in project management systems can be superficially explained by anything from a lack of project detail to managerial conflicts. However, this failure often has deeper roots. Until we begin to recognize this uncontrollable factor it will be difficult to master the implementation of any management system. This factor is known as the “Chaos Theory” or simply “chaos”. Chaos Theory could be considered a core management theory for the 21st century. According to Wheatley (1992) when management tries to control chaos by “shoehorning” it into a specific structure, an organization is bound to fail. Controlling chaos this rigidly is actually limiting information gathering (Stuart, 1995) and creating the illusion of management. According to McNamara (1999), Chaos Theory recognizes that events are rarely controlled. As systems such as those in management grow in complexity, the more they become volatile or susceptible to cataclysmic events.

One way to plan for such chaos is through “contingency management”. Contingency management is having an alternative plan to fall back on when chaos strikes, allowing for critical internal processes to continue and meet the desired outcome. Most managers do not see contingency management as a necessary step, because it takes time. In a world where efficiency and timeliness is key, this step is often the first to be overlooked. Until management recognizes the importance of contingency management and allows it to be fully implemented, chaos will continue to hinder the progress and efficiency of management systems.

DEFINING AND ESTIMATING CHAOS

The more general name for the field is complexity theory, where chaos is a particular mode of behavior (Rosenhead, 1998). Chaos theory explains that the behavior in turbulent systems quickly becomes disordered (Wikipedia, 2005). Chaos theory acknowledges that management systems break down. It recognizes that decisions need to be made even in the absence of all intended information (Herz, 2001). Complete order, while the ideal, will always be the one unaccounted for variablepart of our human nature. Similar to accidents, chaos is like a release of energy in an uncontrolled way (Blockley, 1998).

Project management systems are considered dynamic systems, similar to those in nature, which means they change over time and are hard to predict. Even though they are changing, there is usually an underlying predictability that can be identified. This is where chaotic behavior comes into play. Behavior in systems can be placed into two zones, one, the stable zone, where the system, if disturbed, returns to its initial state and two, the zone of instability where some small activity leads to further divergence (Rosenhead, 1998).

CALCULATING CHAOS

Chaos is immeasurable because of its level of randomness and unpredictability. Gabriel (1996) states that looking for sufficient equations to enable one to ‘manage’ such chaos is part of a futile and wish-fulfilling quest. However there are some researchers that believe calculating chaos is possible. While chaos in the business world mimics that in nature, unlike chaos in nature, there are measurable ways for project managers to try and calculate the degree to which chaos will affect their project. The following formula can help to calculate project constraints:

Dynamics = D + a*P + b*R + c*D*P + d*P*R + e*R*D + f*D*P*R

Where D=directives, P=prerequisites, R=resources and a & f are constraints.

However Bertelsen and Koskela (2003) postulate that aside from estimating the size of the chaos (small to extra large), a system is too complicated to predict its function and response to a given problem.

WHY IS BUSINESS SO CHAOTIC?

The pace of today’s businesses and technological innovations have quickened to an impossible pace. Sometimes project timelines need to be written before all tasks and resources have been completely identified, which puts a project behind schedule before it has begun. This increasingly fast-paced system is “a breeding ground” for a chaotic management system (Yoke, 2003).

This breeding ground is creating a complexity explosion, which is affecting the way project managers need to manage. Undertaking a management system project is more than a weeklong projectmany last for years or longer. As conditions are constantly changing, goals and objectives need to also be flexible to change. Goals and objectives are necessary, however, flexibility is key in order to ensure positive long-term results of a project.

HOW TO MANAGE CHAOS

The first line of defense in order to manage chaos is a good management team and an even better project manager. According to Bertelsen & Koskela (2003) an organization can manage its chaos by seeking out the factors that are easiest to change. An organization should then handle a projects dynamics and stress in the face of uncertainties. Finally, a manager should both always have a contingency plan and be able to keep track of critical factors and issue warnings. By turning an organization into a “learning organization” successful management of chaos is more likely (Bertelsen & Koskela, 2003).

Systems are so dynamically complex and highly sensitive to conditions that any link between cause and effect can set off a ripple effect rendering its future deliverable unpredictable. Technologies, timelines, scope, costs, personnel, are constantly changing within an organization and management must be adaptable. The same holds true for project managers. If they are not given the flexibility to adapt to chaos then management systems will fail. Project managers need to be seen as venture capitalists: always searching for new ideas.

Most management systems set forth a detailed plan and than proceed to follow it. According to McNamara the best way to do this is to work backwards through the system of an organization. This will help to show which processes will produce the right output and what inputs are required to conduct those processes (McNamara, 1999). A good project manager is one who realizes that plans often need to change in order to accommodate a changing situation. By following contingency plans, good managers can avoid such mishaps as scope creep and cost overruns.
There are different tools that project managers can use to help manage the chaos and successfully manage complicated systems. According to the Numbers Group some such tools are:

1. Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) - breaks the product to be developed or produced by hardware, software, support, or service element and relates the scope to each.
Example of WBS

2. Program Evaluation and Review (PERT) - a model, which helps the project manager define the critical path using, randomized tasks
Example of Pert Chart

3. Implementation Schedule (GANTT) - graphical representation of the duration of tasks against the progression of time.

Example of Gantt Chart

4. Enneagram - originally a tool for personality mapping, can find order in chaos by identifying underlying patterns in an organization. The map allows project managers to predict certain outcomes, which results in more reliable management systems. The Enneagram provides a structured view with which to see the order in between chaos (Fowlke & Fowlke, 1997).
Example of an Enneagram

CONCLUSION

A good project manager is one who can adapt to a changing environment as well as allow individuals to manage their own areas of expertise. This business trend is seen in forward thinking companies in the 21st century, and is also known as “managing by objectives” or “empowering knowledge workers”. Unfortunately, in most companies this value paradigm is missed because management is focused on the financials rather than on renewing and developing knowledge (Stuart, 1995).

The project manager’s main function is to recognize employees’ strengths and to empower his group to work individually, both in a team and as individuals. The new project manager needs to be forward thinking and to have the ability to be flexible, creative, and able to respond to events quickly (Yolk 2003). Organizations need to embrace disorder and look to the edge of chaos (Stuart, 1995). Perhaps this empowerment of both individuals and teams as a whole, in conjunction with managements’ ability to stay nimble in the face of a dramatically changing environment, will allow organizations to better manage the challenge of chaos in the 21st century.

REFERENCES

Bertlesen, Sven; Koskela, Lauri. “Avoiding and Managing Chaos in Projects.” <http://strobos.cee.vt.edu/IGLC11/PDF%20Files/03.pdf>.

Blockley, David. “Managing Proneness to Failure.” Journal of Contingencies & Crisis Management June 1998: 147-176.

Freedman, David. “Chaos Theory.” Inc. October 1998: 50-60.

Heidi Mina

A vision statement should communicate two things. One is open for the public, the other should only be shared within the organization.

To start with the latter, a vision should elaborate on the uncertainty of the future. Because even though it is uncertain, you should do something with it. You might find scenarios that would sound plausible and than focus on one of them to be the statement of conviction. We all have an opinion about the future. To know it, just talk or write about it, and you will find out what you come up with. This is however not something you want to share with clients.

When you think about the role, place or position of your company in this future you have just pictured, you enter the area of the second aspect of the vision. Brainstorming about this one, would require that the first step is set; you need a vision about the (not to near) future.

A vision may change over time and needs continuous adjustments as new ideas come by or when new truths become clear. The future is made today and each day may bring a surprise, although (real) changes do not come that often.

Discussions about the role of your company in the future are the driving force for any strategy. In this strategy you will outline and communicate how you will get there. A strategy without a vision is a battle (sorry girls) without a princess Marian to fight for…

© 2006 Hans Bool

Hans Bool is the founder of Astor White a traditional management consulting company that offers online management advice. Astor Online solves issues in hours what normally would take days.
You can apply for a free demo account.

There is no such thing as a “Born Leader”. When people talk about born leaders, what they are really referencing is the “X” factor of leadership. What is the “X” factor? Simply stated the “X” factor is the willingness, the desire and the willpower to become an effective leader.

Effective leaders go through a never ending development process that includes education, self study, training, experience and coaching and mentoring from one or several individuals that have a very positive influence on their personal development. Leadership is the ability to influence, inspire and motivate others to accomplish specific objectives. It includes creating a culture that helps direct the organization in such a way that it makes it cohesive and coherent keeping short term tactical goals and objectives in alignment with long term strategic initiatives. The success of leadership in this process is directly influenced by the individual leaders’ beliefs, values, ethics, character, knowledge and skills.

Position and title may give you power but power in itself does not make you an effective leader. To become an effective leader there are specific skill sets that you must understand and master. This does not come naturally. It takes dedication, passion and commitment to the process. That commitment, dedication and passion includes a tireless effort to improve on specific skills and the development of a personal leadership methodology. This is often referred to as your personal leadership model.

If someone were to ask your subordinates to evaluate your leadership abilities, their response to this question would likely not be related to your character, integrity and values. Of course these are important to your success as a leader but people evaluate your leadership skills based on what you do to figure out who you really are. They are looking for that “X” factor. The “X” factor is what really determines if you are honest, ethical, fair, trust worthy and not self serving. If the “X” factor does not exist, employees are likely to obey rather than follow and only do exactly what they are told to do and nothing more. If the “X” factor does not exist, your success in developing the skills necessary to become an effective leader is likely to be minimal.

The “X” factor shapes what and who you are as a leader. It involves everything you do and it affects the well being of the organization. Employees want to follow a leader they respect, one that gives them a clear sense of direction and a strong vision of the future.

Ask your self these questions to determine if you or other managers in your organization have the “X” factor.

1. How well do you know yourself with regard to self improvement and development?

2. Do you understand, admit and work on personal weaknesses?

3. Do you seek responsibility and take responsibility for your actions striving to reach new heights.

4. When things go wrong do you take the blame instead of looking for others to blame.

5. Does problem solving, decision making and planning come natural to you?

6. Are you a good role model and do you seek out employees with high potential to coach and mentor?

7. Do you truly believe in the value of your employees sincerely caring about their well being without being so compassionate that it clouds your judgment on competence?

So you believe you and your executive team all have the “X” factor. As effective leaders you must be able to interact with employees, peers, seniors and many other individuals both inside and outside the organization. You must gain the support of many people if you are going to meet or exceed established objectives. This means that you must develop or possess a unique understanding of people. The “X” factor is the driving force that will help you develop these skills. Human nature is the common qualities of all human beings. People behave according to certain principles of human nature. Understand these principles that govern our behavior and success is imminent. Start with the basics by revisiting your college study of Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs.

Armed with a refresher of this basic knowledge of human behavior you can now begin to reshape your personal leadership model. This is your manner and approach to providing direction, implementing plans and motivating people. If you have that “X” factor you can become a very effective leader. But remember, There is no such thing as a “Born Leader”. Effective leaders go through a never ending development process. We never stop learning and we never stop growing. Keep working on your leadership model and share your knowledge and success with other potential future stars that have the “X” factor.

http://www.ceostrategist.com Dr. Rick Johnson (rick@ceostrategist.com) is the founder of CEO Strategist LLC. an experienced based firm specializing in leadership, strategic planning and the creation of competitive advantage in wholesale distribution. CEO Strategist LLC. works in an advisory capacity with distributor executives in board representation, executive coaching, team coaching and education and training to make the changes necessary to create or maintain competitive advantage. You can contact them by calling 352-750-0868, or visit http://www.ceostrategist.com for more information. CEO Strategist - experts in Strategic Leadership in Wholesale Distribution. Sign up for Rick’s monthly news letter - “The Howl” email rick@ceostrategist.com.

I’m sure we’ve all had the experience of having a certain block of time available, and our to-do list tasks or goals that we want to accomplish in that time frame, only to turn around at the end of that period of time to have the frustrating experience of not getting nearly enough done that we thought we could. What happened? Where did all the time go? This can be in our personal / family lives, our jobs or our businesses.

Many of the frustrations of this are due to our expectations of what we can accomplish in that amount of time too high, and unrealistic. When we can look at it more objectively, it can reduce stress in our lives, and give more of a sense of accomplishment when we do reach our goals.

Say you have 6 hours available to do a certain project. Prioritize the tasks you want to tackle, with number one being the top priority. Now figure in your typical day, what percentage of that time is typically going to “putting out fires” If approximately 1/3 of your time is this type of work / situation, deduct that amount of time and your original 6 hours minus 2 hours of putting out fires, will give you 4 working hours.

Now, consider the average interruption will take about 8 minutes to deal with before mentally you’re back where you were before the interruption. How many interruptions are typical in your day? Let’s say you get 10 interruptions, 80 minutes. Now subtract those 80 minutes from your 4 hours, now you’ve got a little over 2 hours left to try to accomplish what you thought you actually had 6 hours to do. Is it any wonder why we didn’t get as much done as we had hoped? I believe this will reduce frustration just knowing this, and will allow us to plan our day with much more realistic goals. If something is added to our to-do list, then something else must give to make room.

There are some things that can be done to help however. Just looking at this may help you pin point sources of time wasters. Is there anything that can be done to minimize the need to “put out the fires”? Are there any types of preventative actions that can be taken to at least reduce it?

What about interruptions? Can a phone voice mail be used instead of answering the phone? Then when you do need to return calls, do them as a group, one right after another. What about email? Do you have to respond to emails during this time frame? Again, try to lump like tasks together, when you do need to email, handle it all at once instead of the second they hit your inbox.

Then realize, what you thought was your 6 hours, in reality were perhaps a little over 2. Attack your to-do list with your highest priority, then give yourself a pat on the back for working your best with those 2 hours you had, and that in reality, you did fill 6 hours, and perhaps have a better understanding of where it went. Knowing this will help reduce the stress and frustration of trying to accomplish what may not be possible, and give your planning a more realistic approach.

By Valerie Garner-Mother, grandmother and candlemaker / owner of Joyful Designs in Soy. She loves to write on a variety of topics with a warm, and engaging style. http://www.joyfuldesignsinsoy.com